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Dec 11 2013

SAG Nominations Are In!

Good morning Oscar watchers. This morning brings one of the biggest precursors of the season: the Screen Actor's Guild. These days the eventual Oscar cross-over is usually somewhere between "very hot" (19/20 for 2009) to "very warm" (17/20 in 2011 and 2010) so you can guarantee a large number of the below nominees will show up on Oscar ballots in January.

What are we thinking will cross over? What will fall out? Will tomorrow's Golden Globe nominations (!!!) erase whatever momentum that some of today's nominees have amassed (we're looking at youAugust: Osage CountyandLee Daniels' The Butler)? They just announced the stunt ensemble awards (still not important enough to be read on the main nominations by the likes of Clark Gregg and Sacha Alexander, apparently) and we'll update as they go.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • American Hustle
  • August: Osage County
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • Lee Daniels' The Butler

Four of these were expected, but the inclusion ofDallas Buyers Clubis interesting. I had long thought that McConaughey was maybe not as locked and loaded as people assumed, but I guess the film is resonating. It also has the smallest nominated cast from any of the five films.

Most annoying "I'm not a big name so I wasn't included in the cast nominations despite being in more of the movie" this time around is *clearly* the omission of Yaya Alafia fromLee Daniels' The Butler. But at least Mariah Carey is now a two-time SAG nominee so who's laughing now (even if her inclusion here over Alafia, along with Redgrave and Pettyfer especially is absurd). It's as if SAG themselves don't realise that the credits of a movie are as managed as everything else and that it's all about who has the better agent or who has the more fame. If Alafia's role had been played by someone more famous, I have no doubt they'd be nominated alongside actors with one 20th of the screentime. Joe Reiddutifully listed all the actorswho could have a rightful claim to a nomination including Alafia, Taran Killam inTwelve Years a Slave(his buddy in the film, Scoot McNairy, was nominated) and Kevin Rankin as the homophobic rodeo pal inDallas. One I hadn't noticed was Colleen Camp inAmerican Hustleand now I'm just gonna go spiral into deep madness.

You don't get a SAG nomination, and YOU don't get a SAG nomination, and YOU don't get a SAG nomination...

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

  • Bruce Dern,Nebraska
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor,12 Years a Slave
  • Tom Hanks,Captain Phillips
  • Matthew McConaughey,Dallas Buyers Club
  • Forest Whitaker,Lee Daniels' The Butler

On one hand, I am not at all surprised to see Whitaker nominated. He's incredibly well-liked (he's got his hands in several of this year's contenders alone), he's good in a role that takes him from baby-faced to old man, and the film was obviously popular. On the other hand, I'm surprised at the omission of Robert Redford since, well, he literally had to act all by himself. Dialogue and interaction are apparently the way to avoid that, I guess, since Sandy Bullock was nominated forGravitywith no problem. It's long felt like there were 7 actors gunning for five slots (withWolf of Wall Streetclearly not seen widely enough since Jonah Hill also missed in a relatively open supporting actor field) so maybe it's Redford that's most vulnerable? But I wonder... does Redford get nominated in the stunt ensemble? I mean, hediddo a lot of his own stunts. Hmmm. Hanks definitely needed this as the critics awards were not going for the film.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

  • Cate Blanchett,Blue Jasmine
  • Sandra Bullock,Gravity
  • Judi Dench,Philomena
  • Meryl Streep,August: Osage County
  • Emma Thompson,Saving Mr Banks

A bit ot a yawn roster in thatit's been the presumed Oscar shortlist for weeks now. We just gotta hope that tomorrow's Golden Gobe nominations inject some fresh blood into the non-critics discussion especially for Exarchopoulos who'll really need GG and BAFTA to get behind her if she hopes to squeeze out one of these ladies.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Barkhad Abdi,Captain Phillips
  • Daniel Brühl,Rush
  • Michael Fassbender,12 Years a Slave
  • James Gandolfini,Enough Said
  • Jared Leto,Dallas Buyers Club

I've given up pretending that awards bodies care about category fraud, but it's still a grievance. Brühl and Gandolfini are arguably co-leads (in the case of the former I'd say inarguably). As somebody said on Twitter, the whole roster of nominees feels like "two weeks ago", which makes sense given the ballots were probably cast then. Brühl may be this year's Hilary Swank: nominated here and nowhere else. Are people really remembering that film fondly enough? I find that hard to believe (although, it is a two-time SAG nominee with the stunt cast so maybe I'm wrong).

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Jennifer Lawrence,American Hustle
  • Lupita Nyong'o,12 Years a Slave
  • Julia Roberts,August: Osage County
  • June Squibb,Nebraska
  • Oprah Winfrey,Lee Daniels' The Butler

Yeah, this is what we expected. Can Julia and Meryl survive the tumultuous response to their film and make it to Oscar? I'd love to see Roberts' talent once again justified after 13 years of bickering over her Oscar win, but this is a lead role. And without her this might have been the rarest thing: a supporting category with no lead roles in it! At this stage I'm thinking theFruitvale Stationladies Spencer and Diaz might be out with Oscar. The film didn't get a single nomination today and tomorrow's Globes prospects look grim.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble

  • All Is Lost
  • Fast and Furious 6
  • Lone Survivor
  • Rush
  • The Wolverine

This is what happens when Hollywood offers up some blockbuster garbage. TheX-Menfilms have been nominated here before (First Classwas a stunt ensemble nominee) andAll is Lost是一个好奇的候选人,但其他三个se吗em like solid choices that likely wouldn't have been there if it weren't for so many of Hollywood's big summer blockbusters not being very good. Isn't it curious how little awards attentionThe Hunger Gamesmovies get? Last year's original only received a costume guild nomination and I thought maybeCatching Firemay have caught on here.

Conclusion:So what are we thinking? I think the Redford omission is the biggest surprise of the morning. Personally, I think we'll be looking at another year of red hot cross-over with Oscar. Between 17-19 out of 20 (I don't think Brühl will last to Oscar, maybe Gandolfini, Whitaker or Roberts, too), I'd say. And I really hope we can avoid any "Wolf of Wall Streetshould have screened earlier" nonsense. Let's say "Awards shouldn't be so quick out the gate without having seen big contenders", instead.

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Reader Comments (69)

oops sorry, when I was thinking of Dern I was thinking of the online awards announced yesterday who snubbed him ouch.

Yay Bruce! Win that damn SAG!

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

Disappointing but predictable.

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

I am elated that they nominated August: Osage County for Best Ensemble, and for Meryl and Julia- they're both so deserving. Magnificent divalicious performances from two screen icons.

Thanks for not nominating Nebraska!! Overrated! I would have preferred seeing Dicaprio over Dern

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterMike

More than the actual awards show or even the nominations, my single favorite thing about the SAG Awards is Nathaniel's annual writeup regarding who got snubbed-CANNOT WAIT!

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterJohn T

关于雷德福如此悲伤。但也许这将使chances of an Oscar snub for him less likely, as people prone to voting for him will put him at the top of their ballots.

The nominations for The Butler are lame. It was too much to hope that they'd go for Blue Jasmine (or mercy, Mud or Frances Ha), but half of the cast of The Butler was completely awful, and it wasn't even an "ensemble" in that the film seemed like several different movies. fighting with one another.

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

At Thanksgiving dinner this year, conversation came around to movies we had seen and Daniel Bruhl in Rush came around as the actor we all looked up on IMDB afterwards just to see who he was. I'm happy to see him recognized despite the category fraud.

On the TV side, I guess no one in SAG watches Parks & Recreation.

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered Commenterjtagliere

What's the lowest count of correlation between SAG and Oscar in recent history?

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered Commentereurocheese

Isn't Brühl's category fraud actually like the revenge of the actor (as oppose to movie star) who has to get into category fraud to gain his place? fighting fire with fire?

Also, isn't McConaughey awards history so far, a bit disappointing? On paper, his awards baity role should be steamrolling just like Blanchett. Instead, award bodies (is that a real phrase?) seem to be focusing on Leto. I mean if it doesn't happen for him this year, will we see how he's rewarded in a couple of years to make up for this one?

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered Commenteriggy

Iggy — McConaughey will have opportunities to return to award season that Dern and Ejiofor will not. Awards bodies is a real term and they're fully aware of this and will give Matthew a courtesy nomination for his resurgence. This isn't makeup for Magic Mike because they're not in the business of recognizing things like that with their approval.

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered Commenter3rtful

In 2001 and 2012, only 14 of their 20 acting nominees matched AMPAS's nominees. Some of the early totals were less than that, though.

汤姆·奥尼尔宣称他们pred越来越少ictive (as of last year) because of the merger with AFTRA, which includes few Academy members.

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Nathaniel and Team--really appreciate you explaining the rules for these awarding bodies and critic groups. 'Course I'll forget everything next award season and will continue to bitch and moan. I might even forget by tomorrow morning's Golden Globe noms.

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterPam

I just saw 12Years a Slave and thought it was riveting ... I think best actor should definitely go to Ejiofor ... Best actress to Blanchett ( Streep ) Supporting actor to Leto ( Fassbender ) and Supporting actress to none that were nominated!

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered Commenterrick

It's amazing, no matter how big of a ham Meryl Streep gets people still nominee her for whatever. Quite depressing actually. Seriously, what happened to her? Every new performance crushes all that Streep love I had in my youth.

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterAdam

rick — You're against a Nyong'o win in Sup Actress?

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered Commenter3rtful

I like that Supporting Actor list. Compared to last year where all 5 noms were previous oscar winners - this 5 have never been nominated before.

And some of them will never be nominated ever again - I'm thinking about the amateurs and the deceased.

This would be a great list of nominees for sure.

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterBette Streep

For anyone who is interested in learning the rules for SAG noms.......go to the SAG and look them up. You don't have to be a member to do this.

And the merger didn't really add that many new members as most of us were in both already. For years, SAG was film and AFTRA was television so you needed to be in both. The merger has made it a lot easier, and more manageable as well as keeping a lot of costs in line.

December 11, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterHenry

Nathaniel - my everlasting appreciation for not using the word 'snubbed' about Redford. As deserving he is of recognition (and he is), when there are, what, 12-13 deserving actors across 5 available slots, some deserving performances are not going to get nominated.

December 12, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterPitry

3rtful - Oh, I didn't want to imply that this year's recognition is in fact for Magic Mike. I do think Magic Mike made Dallas Buyers Club possible, and was tailor made for actors getting awards. My fear s that if he doesn't get recognition this year, the ball of overdue-ness will continue growing and in a couple of years he'll win for playing an aging star who has to face his new fate in a glorified Tv movie, or something similar.

December 12, 2013 |Unregistered Commenteriggy

I'm most sad about Yaya in The Butler because she was also snubbed for The Kids Are All Right.

December 13, 2013 |Unregistered CommenterPhilip H.

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