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« How to Train Your Dragon dominates the 2014 Annie awards| Main| Sundance: Me and Earl and the Dying Girl »
Sunday
Feb 01 2015

How Many Oscars Will ______ Win?亚博主页

This weekend was a biggie in terms of below the line awards.The Imitation Gamewon theUSC Scripter Prizewhich goes to movies adapted from literature (and the source material author also wins this prize). TheArt Directors guildchoseBirdmanfor Contemporary Film,andThe Grand Budapest Hotelfor Period (as well asGuardians of the Galaxyfor Fantasy).Meanwhilethe Editorsgave their "Eddies"toBoyhoodfor Dramas andThe Grand Budapest Hotelfor comedies (in addition to prizes forThe LEGO Moviein Animated andCitizen Fourfor Documentaries)

All of this has me wondering if itsThe Grand Budapest Hotelrather thanBoyhoodorBirdmanthat will take home the most Oscars on February 22nd if not Best Picture.亚博主页It's got a decent shot at four or five statues: Costumes,Production Design,Screenplay,Score,and Makeup & Hair.Of those Screenplay is the longest shot sinceBirdmanvsBoyhoodwill be tough to squeeze between to nab the Original Screenplay gold.

Perhaps it will be a spread the wealth kind of year with every Best Picture winning something.Like so...

How many oscars will The Grand Budapest Hotel win?亚博主页

  • Boyhood (4 or 5) Picture,Director,Supporting Actress,Editing (and maybe Screenplay?)
  • Grand Budapest (3 or 4) Costumes,Production Design,Makeup & Hair (and maybe Score?)
  • Birdman (2 or 3) Screenplay,Cinematography (and maybe Actor?)
  • American Sniper (2) Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
  • Theory of Everything (1 or 2) Actor (and maybe Score?)
  • The Imitation Game (1 or 2) Adapted Screenplay (and maybe Score?)
  • Whiplash (1 or 2) Supporting Actor (and maybe Adapted Screenplay?)
  • Selma (1) Song

(As you can see I'm stumped about who might win Best Score.I can see it going any which way.)

Not that there's ever a year whereeveryBest Picture nominee wins something now that we have so many Best Picture nominees.Someone or someones usually go home empty-handed - even if they have come into the big night with a ton of nominations.But there's a first time for everything and it could happen.

What'cha think?

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Reader Comments (28)

That seems about right.I hope American Sniper goes home empty handed,though.

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterSad man

Theory is probably going home empty-handed.

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterJohn

Theory of Everything goes home empty handed.

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterSan FranCinema

Boyhood,3

Picture
Director
Supporting Actress

Birdman,3

Actor
Original Screenplay
Cinematography

Grand Budapest Hotel,4

Costume Design
Production Design
Make Up
Original Score

American Sniper,3

Film Editing
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing

Imitation Game,1

Adapted Screenplay

Whiplash,1

Supporting Actor

Selma,1

Song

Theory of Everything,0

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterÁngel Ramos

Not sure if anything goes home empty-handed,and I agree that Grand Budapest could be the biggest winner,but the fact that Imitation Game is winning awards for its WRITING,of all things,is absurd!
I guess sometimes it is the screenplays that we imagined so much more of that yada yada yada.

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterMike in Canada

Boyhood wins four.

I think Grand Budapest will win Screenplay,so it wins either 4 or 5 (I'm not sure about Makeup or Score)

But then Birdman wins...only one?Maybe two,if it wins actor?

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterCoco

I think Theory is winning both Score and Actor.I would love for Budapest to win score,but every time a composer is nominated twice in this category,he loses,so I doubt Desplat is taking home the Oscar this year.And Theory has the loudest score in the category,which is usually an asset here.

That said,I think people are seriously underestimating Budapest in Original Screenplay.Wes Anderson fits in perfectly with the series of auteurs they've honored in the screenplay categories for having a unique,singular vision but creating films that are frankly too offbeat win the big prizes (Sofia Coppola,Spike Jonze,Jane Campion,Tarantino 2x,etc.).I don't know why so many people are predicting Birdman to win here - the screenplay is Birdman's biggest weakness (it's the main reason I didn't like the film).

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

I think that whether Boyhood,Birdman,or even Grand Budapest wins,it will be a bizarre Best Picture win (not unworthy,by any means,but still bizarre).None of them fit your typical Best Picture winner,which is a good thing.

Also,please don't say Redmayne will get it.I was getting so excited for either Keaton or Fie....oh,wait,just the first,since the second was an UNSPEAKABLE snub.

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterBVR

Interstellar could win score,right?They haven't given it to Hans Zimmer in a long time,and they seem to like rewarding epic,effects-movie scores lately (Gravity,Life of Pi).

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterSan FranCinema

I want to say Grand Budapest will take a wealth,but I fear it won't happen..

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterHenry

It does look like this will be the first year since the category's expansion when every BP nominee wins something.

I wouldn't be surprised if Budapest wins Cinematography instead of Birdman.Sometimes they simply go with the movie they think is the prettiest in that category.And it would be the third time for Lubezki to be the favorite,but lose to a movie that also wins Production Design.

Score really is the hardest category to predict.All the nominees except for Mr.Turner seem like possible winners.

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterJan

It would be ODD if Redmayne loses Actor though right?With Globes,SAG,and (most likely) BAFTA going his way.It'll be interesting nonetheless.

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterRyan T.

Given the industry awards so far,I'd actually be surprised if Birdman loses both best picture and director.

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterAmir

Are we really settling on living in a world where The Imitation Game is the frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay?

February 1,2015 | Unregistered CommenterLucky

Boyhood(3): Director,Picture,Supporting Actress
Grand Budapest(3): Costumes,Production Design,Makeup & Hair
Birdman(3): Actor,Screenplay,Cinematography
Whiplash(3): Supporting Actor,Adapted Screenplay,Editing
American Sniper(2): Sound Editing,Sound Mixing
The Imitation Game(1): Score
Selma(1): Song
Theory of Everything(0)

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

PREDICTIONS AS OF FEB 2,2015
____________________________________

PICTURE: Boyhood
DIRECTOR: Richard Linklater,Boyhood
ACTOR: Bradley Cooper,American Sniper
ACTRESS: Julianne Moore,Still Alice
SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K.Simmons,Whiplash
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette,Boyhood
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Grand Budapest Hotel
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Imitation Game
CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Grand Budapest Hotel
PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Grand Budapest Hotel
COSTUME DESIGN: The Grand Budapest Hotel
MAKEUP: The Grand Budapest Hotel
ORIGINAL SCORE: The Theory of Everything
SONG: "Glory",from Selma
FILM EDITING: Boyhood
SOUND: American Sniper
SOUND MIXING: American Sniper
VISUAL EFFECTS: Interstellar
ANIMATED FEATURE: How to Train Your Dragon 2
FOREIGN FILM: Ida

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterJason Travis

Nat,before the expansion,there ere plenty of years in which every Best Picture nominee won an Oscar.Here are some lineups:

2007: Atonement (Score),Juno (Original Screenplay),Michael Clayton (Supporting Actress),No Country for Old Men (Picture,Director,Supporting Actor,Adapted Screenplay),There Will Be Blood (Actor,Cinematography)

2006: Babel (Score),The Departed (Picture,Director,Adapted Screenplay,Film Editing),Letters from Iwo Jime (Sound Editing),Little Miss Sunshine (Supporting Actor,Original Screenplay),The Queen (Actress)

2004: The Aviator (Supporting Actress,Cinematography,Film Editing,Art Direction,Costumes),Finding Neverland (Score),Million Dollar Baby (Picture,Director,Actress,Supporting Actor),Ray (Actor,Sound Mixing),Sideways (Adapted Screenplay)

1997: As Good as it Gets (Actor,Actress),The Full Monty (Score- Comedy/Musical),Good Will Hunting (Supporting Actor,Original Screenplay),L.A.Confidential (Supporting Actress,Adapted Screenplay),Titanic (11 Oscars including Picture and Director).亚博主页

As for this year,if it's the first expanded field in which all the Best Picture nominees win something,that will be something to celebrate (very spread-the-wealth).

By the way,Suzanne,Birdman is considered the frontrunner for Original Screenplay because it won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award for Original Screenplay.Whether you like it or not doesn't factor into it (it's a mistake we all make when trying to predict the Oscars,亚博主页using our own taste to try and predict the Academy members' tastes).I still believe Boyhood will win Picture and Director and Eddie Redmayne will take Best Actor (playing Stephen Hawking,I believe,will prove irresistible to the Academy).

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterRichter Scale

Boyhood
Picture
Director
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress

Birdman
Cinematography

Grand Budapest Hotel
Costumes
Make Up
Production Design
Original Score

American Sniper
Adapted Screenplay
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Editing

Whiplash
Supporting Actor

Selma
Song

The Imitaion Game
Nothing,I Tell You!Nothing!

What i hope or:
Selma - Picture,Song
Grand Budapest - Director,Original Screenplay,Costume,Production Design,Score
Theory of Everything - Actor
Boyhood - Supporting Actress,Editing
Birdman - Sound Editing,Sound Mixing

Captain America - Visual Effects
Guardiand of the Galaxy - Make Up
Ida - Cinematography
Foxcatcher - Supporting Actor
Wild - Actress
Inherent Vice - Adapted Screenplay (well,i haven't seen it yet..but it has to be better than those other four,no?)

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterGeorgeT

It's worth mentioning that in 2012,eight of the nine best picture candidates went home with an oscar.This year,there are eight best picture nominees.

I also think a lot more categories are in flux.

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterArkaan

Interesting that after picking up both the PGA and SAG,nobody thinks Birdman has a chance in taking Picture.

I say Redmayne could win Actor,but Keaton has been *everywhere* recently.He's definitely gunning for it.I do think though that Theory wins Score.

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterEvan

Jason Travis,Up in the Air also won the Globe and the CCFA for Best Screenplay,so those awards aren't necessarily predictive.In fact,it's a little silly to base Oscar predictions on awards where industry voters aren't voting.

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Oops,sorry,that comment was meant for Richter Scale!

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Boyhood (I think 4)
Birdman (I think 1/maybe 4)
The Theory of Everything (I think 1/maybe 2)
Still Alice (I think 1)
Whiplash (I think 1/maybe 3)
Grand Budapest Hotel (I think 5/maybe 7)
Interstellar (I think 1)
American Sniper (I think 2)
Ida (I think 1)
Selma (I think 1)
The Imitation Game (I think 1)
Leviathan (maybe 1)

Picture
Boyhood
maybe: Birdman

Actor
Eddie Redmayne
maybe: Michael Keaton

Actress
Julianne Moore

Actor in a Supporting Role
J.K.Simmons

Actress in a Supporting Role
Patricia Arquette

Directing
Richard Linklater
maybe: Wes Anderson

Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Grand Budapest Hotel
maybe: Birdman

Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
The Imitation Game
maybe: Whiplash

Cinematography
Birdman
maybe: Grand Budapest Hotel

Original Score
Grand Budapest Hotel
maybe: The Theory of Everything

Original Song
Selma

Editing
Boyhood
maybe: Whiplash

Production Design
Grand Budapest Hotel

Costume Design
Grand Budapest Hotel

Makeup and Hairstyling
Grand Budapest Hotel

Sound Mixing
American Sniper

Sound Editing
American Sniper

Visual Effects
Interstellar

Foreign Language
Ida
maybe: Leviathan

February 2,2015 | Unregistered Commenterthomas

Birdman (3) - Picture,Screenplay,Cinematography

Boyhood (3) - Director,Supporting Actress,Film Editing

The Grand Budapest Hotel (3) - Production Design,Costume Design,Makeup and Hairstyling

American Sniper (2) - Sound Mixing,Sound Editing

The Theory of Everything (2) - Best Actor,Best Score

Whiplash (2) - Best Supporting Actor,Best Adapted Screenplay

And none for The Imitation Game bye.

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterBo

I wouldn't count out the Glen Campbell song.

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterHenry

Henry: I wouldn't count out any of the song nominees,but I give the edge toSelmaright now because I'm an eternal optimist.

Evan: The only reason I'm sayingBoyhoodfor Best Picture right now and notBirdmanis (again) my optimism for Michael Keaton.If I were going with Redmayne,I'd be going withBirdman.

And I think Desplat is winning for one of his nominated scores this year,which means (according to my other predictions) that eitherTheoryorImitationwould have to go home empty-handed.I thinkBudapestwill take home three other statues andTheorygets a donut.Again,optimism.

Still got a few weeks to chew on this.

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

Best Actor is exciting for all the wrong reasons.

February 2,2015 | Unregistered Commentermark

Suzanne,I didn't say that's the reason it's the frontrunner,I'm saying it's the reason it's Considered the frontrunner.The last three years there has been a trend that the Screenplay winner at the Golden Globes has won Original Screenplay at the Oscars (Midnight in PAris,亚博主页Django Unchained,Her),and all of them won the CCFA for Best Original Screenplay as well (the two that were eligible for WGA also won there).So,with that trend,it stands to reason that Birdman would be predicted for Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars (I'm still feeling a Grand Budapest Hotel win there,亚博主页just because I feel they'll want to give Wes Anderson something,but I wouldn't bet on it)...

February 2,2015 | Unregistered CommenterRichter Scale

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