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Main| What if there had been a Best Casting Oscar this past decade?»
Friday
Aug 09 2019

Oscar Chart Updates: 5 Questions about the Actresses

It was long past time for a revision of those April Foolish Oscar Predictions charts.("That's an understatement,"the readers scream in unison) so here we go,finally for early August.It's just a few weeks before things really get churning withthe fall festivals.So here are ten questions that are on our mind now that we've finished updating theBEST ACTRESSandBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESScharts - so check them out.And please to do your own speculation in the comments about these questions.

01.Will Scarlett Johansson finally get an Oscar nomination?Or TWO?She's got a lead actress bid with the buzzyMarriage Storyand we know that Noah Baumbach is good with actors.But we still think she's more likely as the brave mother in Taiki Waitit's satireJoJo Rabbit.The hilarious thing about Scarlett is she's so underrated as an actor now -- given her years in franchiseland and her recent missteps in interviews -- that she might even qualify as a "I didn't know she had that in her"surprise type player...even if that's a case of willful amnesia about her talent...

02.Could Margot Robbie stay in the mix forOnce Upon a Time ...in Hollywood?
On the one hand this seems like much ado about nothing given her screentime and the fact that Margaret Qualley emerges as a rival for Best in Show,female division (and that little girl Julia Butters also steals a lengthy scene)...But on the other Robbie as Tate is a major talking point,it's an endearing performance,and if the film is a major player,she could easily coast in regardless of feelings about the actual quality of the role/performance.

03How many non-white actresses will be nominated?We're predicting three currently in the two categories.The first two-black women nominated in lead since 1972 (which we think is likely even if it's not those exact two women) and an Asian woman in supporting.Now we freely admit that the latter is wishful thinking since Oscar has routinely ignored Asian women for 90 years,even when they've been in Best Picture nominees (thinkCrouching Tiger,The Last Emperor) or won precursor attention (think Hong Chau recently).But we're choosing to be optimistic because we do thinkThe Farewellwill snag a well-deserved Best Picture nomination.It's already accrued almost $8 million at the box office even though it's largely in Chinese and it's playing in the summer opposite superhero pictures and it hasn't even gone wide yet.It's likely to end 2019 as the highest grossing foreign-language film.But it's also an American picture which makes it easier for Oscar play.

04How misleading OR accurate are current trailers?The trailer forHarriethighlights Janelle Monae in a major wayand if it's a large role she's in a good career position to capitalize on it for an Oscar nomination.But is she really the largest role among that film's female supporting players (what about Harriet's mother for instance?) or so high up in billing / trailer emphasis because she's quite famous?It's possible that other players will have meatier roles.And speaking of cameo versus substantial 'who knows' problems of punditry:we only see Anna Paquin for a split second inThe Irishmantrailer.But what if the Oscar-winner's role is more substantial and she just isn't being highlighted because DeNiro & Pesci & Pacino directed by Scorsese is the obvious draw?AMPAS has often been very kind to the sole famous woman in an ensemble of men on their Oscar ballots.

05Why do we have so little faith inLittle Women?Looking around the web it appears that most pundits are predicting Greta Gerwig's take on the classic to be a big Oscar deal with nominations for Best Picture and Saoirse Ronan in lead and Meryl Streep in supporting but we can't quite get there.This is not the same as thinking it's not going to be good -- with Greta Gerwig behind it there's reason to hope it will be marvelous.It's just that it's been made several times already and Oscar (generally speaking) doesn't go crazy for remakes.Plus,none of the famous versions ofLittle Womenhave set the Oscars on fire: The very famous 1933 version received 3 nominations (Picture,亚博主页Director,and won for Adapted Screenplay);the 1949 version received 2 nominations (Cinematography,and won for Art Direction);the popular 1994 version received 3 nominations (Actress,Costumes,Score,losing all of them).This will likely get a few random Oscar nods because it's so high profile...but not within the acting categories.What are we missing about this production that is inspiring so much faith in other pundits?

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Reader Comments (9)

I really think Julia Butters is going to be a strong contender for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.She steals the movie.

August 9,2019 | Unregistered Commenterken s.

It was announced yesterday that "Lucy in the Sky"is being released Oct.4

August 9,2019 | Unregistered CommenterParker

My guess is that you have so little faith in Little Women because you never were a fan of the book or the previous film versions!But maybe you'll end up loving this version.The screening reports of Little Women suggest that it's not a remake,but a different vision of a book (see The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo).Rumor is that Florence Pugh,not Scanlen,is the MVP among the supporting players and could contend for a nod.

What are the plans for that Roger Ailes film to premiere?It feels like something that needs a festival debut.Has it screened yet?I know Kidman is beloved here,but I think it will be hard for her to compete with Naomi Watts's outstanding performance as Gretchen Carlson on The Loudest Voice.

August 9,2019 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Having just seen The Farewell,I can say that while I like Awkwafina,the real MVPs of the film are in the supporting roles: Diana Lin & Zhao Shuzhen,as her mother and grandmother,respectively.They were both wonderful.I will be curious to see how things go.I do think a BP nom seems very very possible!

August 9,2019 | Unregistered CommenterRob

Best Actress in a Leading Role also known as My Annual Heartache.

August 9,2019 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

Suzanne -- i actually love Little Women in general.I'm just saying history shows that Oscar thinks its nice but not earth-shaking.a different version of the same book is still a remake.we're getting fancy with definitions now ;)

Ken -- ooh,that's an interesting suggestion.I shall think on it.

August 9,2019 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Wouldn't it be amazing if Soderbergh gives Sharon Stone some scene-stealy character in The Laundromat?I don't know anything about her character or the size of the role.

August 9,2019 | Unregistered CommenterH

Ryder is the only woman who has been nominated for a Little Women Adaptation.So yeah,it's not happening unless the movie is amazing.They gave Hepburn a win the year she was much better in Little Women,so I can't imagine it's a novel they care all that much about.

August 9,2019 | Unregistered CommenterPeter

At this point,I think your Best Supporting Actress line-up makes a lot of sense.But except for Erivo (who I wish had been in contention last year for Bad Times at ...),Actress feels really up in the air to me,since so little is still known about the films of some of the likeliest contenders.

August 9,2019 | Unregistered CommenterScottC

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