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Main| 'On the Floor' »
Saturday
Sep 21 2019

Best Actor / Supporting Actor - Chart Updates!

by Nathaniel R

Netflix would like to have 80% of the BEST ACTOR field (Driver,Murphy,Pryce,DeNiro) but that will prove impossible.

The new predictions are in.Best Actoris more exciting and competitive than Best Actress this year which is a strange and unusual development...and we don't like it!We kid.The male actors deserve their moment in the sun occassionally,even if they're not as fun to shine light on.The strangest thing about the leading actor competition is,at least at the moment,Netflix literally appears to have about 1/3rd of the entire competitive field.But since their can be only 5,we think that this shotgun approach will only result in two nominees at best.Right now we're going with Adam Driver (who feels like the ultimate winner...though let's not pretend anything's locked up yet in late September) and Eddie Murphy (who could easilynothappen given Netflix's other horses in the race).

As forSupporting Actor.It isn't that much different than Best Actor this year.This year has been fairly heavy with duet films for men (The Lighthouse,A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood,Ford v Ferrari,The Last Black Man in San Francisco,Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,The Two Popes) so naturally a few of the co-leads will definitely block out supporting players for the coveted nominations.We're mostly giving the side-eye to Willem Dafoe.He's the most egregious category frauder this year since you can't be a supporting actor in a cast of two!(There are technically a few other actors that appear inThe Lighthousebut they're non-speaking cameos.It's a duet film from start to finish).It's a shame that Dafoe is competing supporting because we think he'd still be competitive for a nomination in lead despite the strong year.The only traditional-sized supporting role that we think won't be hurt by the co-leads muscling in is Alan Alda's divorce attorney inMarriage Story.In some ways he's the film's most loveable character,and Alda has been nominated for less (The Aviator).At 83 he'll have sentiment on his side,too.

UPDATED CHARTS
PICTURE|DIRECTOR|ACTOR|SUPPORTING ACTOR|INTERNATIONAL FEATURE|ALL INTERNATIONAL FEATURE SUBMISSIONS

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Reader Comments (14)

Might we see noms for Marriage Story in all 4 acting categories?!!

September 21,2019 | Unregistered CommenterParanoid Android

Paranoid -- i feel so sure that we're going to.

September 21,2019 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

I saw Katey Rich's tweet about Adam Driver's performance being more like a typical Best Actress win (and your response).I do wonder if Driver's backstory and physicality lends itself to countering the vulnerability a lot of male voters tend not to respond to.By that I mean the 6'3"-former-Marine-Juilliard-grad-ness of Driver might make them more comfortable responding to the kind of vulnerable performance that they'd find off-putting in someone less "masculine."I'm not sure if I'm making sense with this argument,though.

The race could be a nail-biter between him and Phoenix,whose performance is probably more in line with what they like to reward (physical,weight loss),though the movie may be a harder sell.

September 21,2019 | Unregistered CommenterKate

Looks like,no matter what shakes out,we're going to see a VERY old Supporting Actor lineup.A lot of amazing veterans doing great work this year.

September 21,2019 | Unregistered CommenterJP

I agree with Kate that it looks like it may come down to Phoenix vs.Driver.Obviously,one other factor there would be people seeing Phoenix as "due",whereas Driver will have other chances (not that Phoenix won't,but you get the idea).On the other hand,despite not being any more forthcoming with the press,I imagine Driver is seen as a lot more "likeable"than Phoenix is.

In short,if it does come down to the two of them,there are a ton of factors working for and against them both,making the outcome very much in doubt.

September 21,2019 | Unregistered CommenterJP

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on Dafoe's placement in Supporting being "category fraud",because even though it's a two-hander,the film is very clearly told from Pattinson's point of view,which to me makes Dafoe's part a very clear supporting role (I actually felt the very nature of his character was ambiguous).If I remember correctly,Dafoe is never on-screen alone,while Pattinson constantly is,which to me makes it a very clear case that it's a supporting role (I may have to watch the film again though).

September 21,2019 | Unregistered CommenterRichter Scale

I haven't seen Jojo Rabbit yet,but is Taika Waititi not a Supporting Actor contender?The role on paper sounds like it would be,even if it's somewhat of a silly character.

September 21,2019 | Unregistered Commenterryan14

Yikes I don't like that B/Actor list bar Driver.

September 21,2019 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

Who is better in the film Liotta or Alda.

September 21,2019 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

Leading:
Phoenix
Driver
DiCaprio
Pryce
Banderas

Supporting:
Pitt
Hanks
Alda
Bale
Hopkins

September 21,2019 | Unregistered CommenterErick Loggia

Intriguing to me the lack of Two Popes mention.It'll likely figure into these races more than Dolemite.

September 21,2019 | Unregistered CommenterTony Ruggio

I agree with the distinction of Pitt being a "borderline lead"for HOLLYWOOD.I still consider him a co-lead,but his placement in Supporting doesn't feel nearly as icky or egregious as last year with the women in THE FAVOURITE and Mahershala in that one movie.

Supportive doesn't necessarily mean Supporting,but it obviously reads that way for many,and Cliff is VERY supportive.

September 21,2019 | Unregistered CommenterRoger

Mark -- Alda for sure but Liotta's part is just as big.

Ryan -- that was an error.accidentally deleted him from the spreadsheet.have fixed.

September 21,2019 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Nat!!!!!Stop teasing with the men and move on to the women already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

September 21,2019 | Unregistered CommenterKaye

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