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新鲜奥斯卡提名的«新奥斯卡花絮礼貌|主要|第92届奥斯卡奖提名~生活Announcement »
Monday
一月 13 2020

奥斯卡提名一目了然。你怎么做你的预测是什么?

by Nathaniel R

在在Oscar Nomination Index, you can survey the whole field and see how we did on our predictions. The short answer is NOT GREAT. But want the long answer? If you do click to read more...

我们有一个little too daring in our Acting predictions since the truth is that Oscar rarely strays from the template set by the Globes and SAG so two criticarl darlings who were iffy given the precursors (Banderas and Nyong'o) got a split result with only one of them making it. But Oscar not getting adventurous is why we stuck with Erivo & Theron in Best Actress despite a lack of passion for those performances out there in the (online) world and why we should have predicted Leonardo DiCaprio all along.

As for director, that fifth spot also went where most people expected it to go but we thought they'd get artier. So now you have the real thing (Martin Scorsese) competing directly against his imitator (Todd Phillips... since Joker is just basically a knock off喜剧的出租车司机/王goosed up to also be part of the Batman franchise)

We tend to do very well on Cinematography each year and correctly predicted The Lighthouse. We just picked the wrong film to miss for its placement. The Irishman's nods for Cinematography and Costume Design both feel quite excessive, considering the rich array of options the Academy has but this year is one of those years where lazy voting reigned. We haven't done the research yet but years with FOUR films hitting 8 digit nomination counts we think are fairly rare and Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and The Irishman all accomplished that this year. So in short they were obsessed with those four films. We think slot five, if we went back to the five nomineees only days is tougher to say. What is in fifth place really: Marriage Story or Jojo Rabbit or Little Women?

We were saved by rioting withParasitelanding in Production Design and Editing but those two categories otherwise feel quite lazy. I dont even dislikeJojo Rabbitthe way so much of the internet does but what business does its Wes Andersony stylings have doing in thse categories? Marriage Story would have made a great editing nominee but was nowhere to be found in the visual categories.

It's cute that even though you can't count on the Sound branch to differentiate between Mixing and Editing (their nominations are usually 4/5 or 5/5) you can usually count on them to give one random movie its sole nod. That year that honor goes to Ad Astra and we're delighted because we love that movie and it had no Oscar campaign to speak of. When a movie doesn't have a campaign and shows up you know people who were voting for it actually think of it as "Best" in that category.

Let us not speak of the horrific snubbing of the year's best Original Song ("Glasgow" from Wild Rose) in favor of simple tunes and dross. LET US NOT.

最后让我们来听听它的HONEYLAND这是第一部电影有史以来* *在两个最佳纪录片和最佳国际电影比分同时...虽然很多电影也都尝试过!否则,真正形成,纪录片科忽视了今年最大的文档命中(Apollo 11所以我们也许愚蠢的预测。

And finally, because we like to be totally transparent here, marvel at how poorly we scored on Live-Action Shorts. It's the worst we've ever done in the shorts categories. It's hard to be *that* wrong when you have only 10 finalists to choose from so WHOOPS. We were somewhat redeemed with the 4/5 score in Documentary shorts though.

你怎么做你的预测是什么?什么是你最值得骄傲的?你在哪里失败壮观?

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读者评论(71)

I had more Ford v Ferrari and Rocketman and less Little Women but I really don't care because now I have to sit and watch Richard Jewell and Bombshell and I DONT WANT TO.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

I had come to terms with Lopez not winning but no being nominated? And getting shut out by THESE performances?! Truly truly dispirating. With the exception of Pugh I think the rest of the category is either unmemorable or fully horrible. It's the weakest it's been in a while.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterPeter

I think it's the first time ever four films have gotten double digit nominations. Heck, I don't think there's been a year where three films have done it.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterJonathan

In such a fun, diverse year at the movies, this list feels like socks for Christmas. Just so boring and Dad movie. (And what did Jennifer Lopez do wrong one her past lives?)

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterTom M

There's nothing *wrong* with Kathy Bates in RICHARD JEWELL, if this were say, 1997 or so. It's a harmless supportive mom type and she has a few Oscar clip scenes that play well.

But in 2019 with the wealth of talent out there... Imagine what this category could've been! Gross.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterDAVID

I'm glad the Oscars can still sometimes show some sense and didn't nominate Sandler while putting in Banderas. Too bad they'll likely give awards to baity, undeserving fare like OUATIH and Zellweger's Judy. This will be my first year not watching in a long time after last year's out and out debacle.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenterwhunk

I was spot on about Little Women, which makes me sad because I personally nominated it for so much more. Parasite beat my expectations with the Production Design nomination. I had crossed my fingers that Joker might not hit as hard as expected, but I've been having a very monkey's paw New Year so far and my wish came true in the opposite way.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenter抢ert G

Ugh. Now I have to see Richard Jewell, The Lion King and Maleficent

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenterken s.

It’s especially disappointing to see four movies dominate with double-digit nominations in such a strong, diverse year for movies. Of course those were going to be the movies with the most nominations, but did they really need to be nominated in ALL of those categories when there were so many opportunities to include films that didn’t have a shot at a Best Picture nomination? Did 1917–by all accounts, a directorial/technical achievement—need an Original Screenplay nomination when they could have given it to The Farewell, Booksmart, Uncut Gems, etc.? Did Joker and The Irishman need Costume Design nominations at the expense of Dolemite Is My Name (one of the more surprising snubs)?

I swear, most Academy voters must only watch the 10 or so movies in the Best Picture conversation, and it shows.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterEdwin

I'm honestly bummed for The Farewell, it scored bigger in my own predictions - but most of my categories (I only do a top 8 tbh the technicals i'm not great with predicting) were mostly 4/5. The Two Popes really affected my charts.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterRJ

Overall very disappointing nominees.

But I'm thrilled for Scarlett Johansson. Talk about making up for lost time!

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterJF

Bates' Oscar legacy
4 nods means she has more any of her fellow 63rd ceremony acting winners
Though Joe Pesci and her are reunited since their initial wins 29 years ago
He trails her with three nods, followed by Whoopi with two, and Jeremy Irons only has the one despite the lone triple crown winner of the bunch
Bates also is a three consecutive decade nominee

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

Fun fact:

最佳男配角is Brad Pitt vs Oscar winners from 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1994.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterME

I'm happy for "Ford vs Ferrari" a solid well crafted movie that should take home the editing Oscar and yes for Antonio Banderas!

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterJaragon

Why would Bates have been ok in 1997?

20世纪90年代>>现在,请。

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenter

纳撒尼尔,多么激动,你做你的女配角拍下来?JLO会作出这么有趣得多,但即使她我真的不知道激情有多少人会感觉这组超出了她的表演。我认为,JLO会赢得一个蛋糕散步嫌下来,但现在???

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterCharlea

Will Saoirse Ronan become the new nominations-magnet à la Meryl Streep? She's received 4 nominations by age 25, and the last three (2016, 2028 and 2020) in the course of 5 years. Is this achievement a record in itself?

接下来是两部电影与凯特·温斯莱特:“菊”和“法国派遣”,双方定于今年发布。“菊石”可能是奥斯卡材料。

Does it show she my favorite young actress? And, BTW, she should have won for Brooklyn.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterMarcos

ME: Brad Pitt is also an Oscar winner, technically. He won an Oscar for producing 12 Years a Slave, so everyone in that lineup is a previous winner (granted, Pitt has yet to win for acting and will this year). But yeah, it's actually kind of cool that so many actors that haven't been nominated for so long are back.

安东尼奥·班德拉斯被提名,所以我快乐!

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenter里氏震级

I'm also thrilled for Arianne Phillips! Hands down one of the coolest people in the game.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterJF

@ME and Brad PItt's 1st nomination was best supporting actor in 1995!

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterJW

你们都看起来不错25年后

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenter布拉德·皮特

我很恼火告别被排除。而Gerwig失踪主任。而Parasitr无法降落的作用点。

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterDevin D

他们没有理睬露丝·卡特?和马克哈里斯说,在Twitter上,他们确实很不错。

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

So, I've mentioned that I'm running an alternate history of the Oscars where prior winners (and people who would otherwise be double nominated but are winning one of the categories) can't get nominated. Based on these nominations, THAT alternate history would probably look like...

主演:

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker - Winner
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
泰隆·艾格顿,ROCKETMAN
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Lead Actress:

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story - Winner
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
西尔莎·罗南,小妇人
Alfre Woodard, Clemency

男配角:

布拉德·皮特,黄飞鸿好莱坞 - 冠军
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Song Kang-ho, Parasite
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit

最佳女配角:

劳拉织补、婚姻故事——赢家
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
玛格特·罗比,重磅炸弹
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterVolvagia

#oscarssoboring

And the only (non-animated, non-doc) films I still "need" to see are爱尔兰人(tonight),1917, The LighthouseAd Astra...

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterWorking stiff

Harris is such a conservative. If he weren't gay he would be voting Republican.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterWu

A statistical oddity - the nine films with the most nominations (from "Joker" with eleven to "Ford vs. Ferrari" with five) are also the exact same nine films nominated for Best Film. The next highest nomination total is three.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterCarl

How did The Farewell get nothing? How?

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterCash

So now you have the real thing (Martin Scorsese) competing directly against his imitator...

有趣的注脚:
艾玛·蒂兰热Koskoff被提名为同时生产。

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterWorking stiff

我大喜,在J-罗的遗漏。

HUSTLERS was the first movie of hers I’d seen since MONSTER-IN-LAW, and I thought she was pretty bad per usual. It’s a performance made up of little more than striking poses and delivering stilted line readings. I didn’t buy Ramona’s relationship with her daughter, nor her ambition of launching a fashion label, and especially not when she turned on the Constance Wu character (“You ungrateful little b!tch!”). Essentially, she gave an impressive provocative dance while scantily clad, something already well within her wheelhouse and the only one of her multi-hyphenates at which I believe she’s actually good. (If you look closely enough at the close-ups and long shots, it is also quite obvious to me that she used a double at points.) This whole hysteria began with bizarre and hyperbolic praise (payola perhaps?) from A.O. Scott and Peter Travers and was parlayed by the huge publicity machine behind her into the most desperate campaign I can ever recall seeing. Worst of all, we’re stuck with her as one half of the Super Bowl halftime show during which, and adding insult to injury, she’ll probably unleash Pitbull on us. I’m presently and ironically spinning “Feelin’ So Good” from ON THE 6 and reveling in my schadenfreude.

(I knew Laura Dern would win the Globe the second they brought Gwyneth out to present, which was karmic retribution for Ms. Lopez’s infamous MOVIELINE diatribe.)

I like Brad Pitt and think he could eventually win an Oscar without category fraud. I’m embarrassed for his clear Lead going Supporting; it’s cheating, and he’s such a big star that it makes it all the more egregious than Alicia Vikander and Mahershala Ali (both of whom were likely at the mercy of studio strategy) and Viola Davis (which is also unforgivable). There has to be a concrete time rule for Supporting vs. Lead!

它的真正来此,我建议:
MORE THAN 45 MINUTES SCREENTIME = LEAD
LESS THAN 45 MINUTES SCREENTIME = SUPPORTING

I’m thrilled for Antonio, Popes Pryce & Hopkins, and Kathy Bates.
My heart breaks for Mary Kay Place, Alfre Woodard, Song Kang Ho, and, surprising to myself, Adam Sandler.
PARASITE & 1917 are the only Best Picture and/or Director results acceptable to me.

感谢所有你做什么,纳撒尼尔!你的工作和你的团队的工作一直是喜悦今年再次阅读!

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterRyan

Carl - how is that a statistical oddity? Did it not happen last year, also?

And "Ford v Ferrari" has four nominations.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterJonathan

I feel bad for some of the ladies, especially Greta Gerwig. I was hoping she would be nominated over the Joker dude. Also, Jennifer Lopez, Awkwafina, Lupita Nyong'o … you know, the women of color.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenter城野

I’m SOOO HAPPY FloPu made it into my favorite category ... but I’m devastated it was at the expense of JLo. Never in my life did I see myself mourning at Jennifer Lopez’s expense but today is that day.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterBushwick

Watched Honeyland yesterday (it's on Hulu). It was very good but I still can't help but wondering if it was at least partially scripted.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenterwhunk

Never bet on an A24 movie unless it's a genuine phenomen like Moonlight or Lady Bird.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenterjules

在Twitter上马克·哈里斯:“没有人应该满足的是19个20个行事插槽来到白表演,但每年的提名是一个深刻的不完善快照学院是奖励斯派克·李,马赫舍拉·阿里和里贾纳国王去年是同一个。这贻误了拍摄今年“。

马克哈里斯却不是说他们做的pretty good'. He's saying this bad outcome is not the whole story in the ongoing struggle to diversify the academy. But by all means, pop off.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterLaika

Ryan: I mean, 45 minutes of a 180+ minute movie is still almost certainly supporting, though? You have to go proportional, at least as a guideline. <25% of screentime? Almost always supporting, barring certain HIGHLY impactful characters. 25-40% of screentime? Dicey. Depends on structure. 41-60%? Almost always lead, but watch out for low impact sounding board characters, like Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs. 61% or more? They're lead. No question.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterVolvagia

我很生气JLO得到了冷遇。首先,因为我觉得她真的活该,她在混混伟大的...其次,因为现在我已经看理查德·朱厄尔...为什么????

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterBensunce

斯嘉丽·约翰逊这样不值得的NOM - 她是由亚当驾驶员在他们分享每一个场景outacted - 她因为皮肤下一直都不好 - 她给在迷失东京完美的表现,但是这是很长的时间以前。
我责怪低劣的超级英雄电影,她一直的一部分。

露琵塔·尼咏欧 - 这是这样一个远射,纳撒尼尔 - 它一定是你的心脏说话,而不是你的头脑 - 换句话说一厢情愿。

这么高兴佛罗伦萨Pugh的 - 她是我最喜欢的女演员在一段时间一起去。
The world didn't need another Little Women but it needs (and luckily celebrates) great actresses like her.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterUlrich

Once upon a time in Hollywood, men ruled and women knew their place. Oh yeah, that's still how it is.

I've been saying for months this is a backlash year - in the context of #TimesUp and #MeToo, the Academy digs in and rewards toxic masculinity, violence, guns, and filmmakers who keep women mute.

对于快乐的每一丝(ANTONIO,佛罗伦萨),我主要觉得怠慢了JLO,克沃菲纳,淑珍赵,Lupita,寄生虫的演员(尤其是女演员)的肠道冲,虽然我们在这,塔龙。

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterSan FranCinema

I've been on a cloud for Honeyland all morning. What a film, and I hardly believe the academy truly *saw* this little film's value on the level it did. Thrilling news.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterKJ

I agree that Lupita was probably a longshot. It was so so similar in terms of awardage and genre to Toni Collette's effort last year.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenterwhunk

I can only accept Johansson double nomination because I actually think she should have three nominations by now. Lost in Translation, Her and Marriage Story. Under the skin in an exceptional dimension could’ve made a 4th but that film never really had a chance. However, I don’t think her performance in Jojo Rabbit merited a nomination. Is it good? Yes. Touching even, but that’s about it.

I add my voice to the chorus of people relieved to know that J Lo is not a nominee. I’m a latino before anybody comes for me but she’s just not a talented actress.

I had hopes for Lupita and Shuzhen and felt the possibility was there. Alas.

All in all, a nomination morning like every other year. Expected, surprises that delight folks and snubs that upset others, and people whining and think-piecing about them on the internet. All is good.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenter琼斯

@KJ - 是的,是的,是的!Honeyland值得这么多的这个赞誉。多么杰出的电影。

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenter琼斯

Ugh. The more I look at these categories the more I hate them. I truly can say I'm not rooting for a single thing.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered CommenterTroy H.

I used to get giddy gearing up for Oscar nominations morning, but lately the feeling has been more of dread (or increasing disinterest).

If anything, at least now we can acknowledge/accept that the Academy's recent push to diversify its membership isn't the saving grace we hoped it'd be. In fact, the more diverse, international membership is just as prone to terrible group think as the older, whiter, more male membership of yore. Which really sucks.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenter马里科

马里科- frankly i dont know why that is coming as a surprise to people. People are people, skin-color does not make people immune from groupthink or laziness. Neither does citizenship. But i'm going to choos to believe it's just a bad year. We have bad years and good years and inbetween years.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Charlea -- i feel pretty sure i know who is going to win the Smackdown and it would have been a LOT more fun with JLo's performance in there. But i'm always excited to dot the smackdown.

琼斯 - 今年我觉得这种方式对斯嘉丽太除了我喜欢HRE的表演很多比你做的。两个在一年内通常认为过度它是谁(我不能回忆起我想对演戏双都被点头值得的实例),但如果次表演是underrewardd一般是比较容易接受和她完全是。

Ulrich -- but was it? She had a SAG nom and it was an enormous hit. I still think it could have and should have happened. I bet she was in 6th place, easy.

一月uary 13, 2020 |Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

唉,现在我想我得终于看到小丑,该死。

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenter

whunk:

I have the same reservations about Honeyland. There's just too much of a story arc for me to believe the whole thing was just "found".

一月uary 13, 2020 |Unregistered Commenterken s.